Critical Analysis on India’s Climate Targets in light of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report

Author: Soumyya Khanna is a 2nd year student at the National Law Institute University, Bhopal.

Introduction

When there’s a talk about climate change and recent developments in its concept, addressing IPCC is certain and essential. IPCC, an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, was set up in 1988. The objective behind the same is to provide governments with necessary scientific information that can be used to develop policies for the climate. The IPCC’s reports are widely recognized as the most authoritative source of information on climate change and have played a key role in shaping global climate policy. Like every organisation, the IPCC publishes reports sexennially; in 2021 and 2022 it released the Sixth Assessment Report with contributions from its three Working Groups (WGs) namely WG-I in August 2021, WG-II in February 2022 and finally WG-III in April 2022.

These reports are of crucial importance as they serve as an important tool for negotiations globally, to tackle climate change. This of course includes Conference of Parties (COP), which is convened annually.

Overall, the reports of IPCC serve as a global assessment of their findings and do not essentially provide recommendations for any country or region. To ensure that these assessments of IPCC inform true national-level policymaking, it is required that recommendations must be framed for each country.

The IPCC has also faced criticism in some quarters. One of the main criticisms is that the organization’s assessments tend to be conservative, meaning that they may underestimate the severity of climate change and its impacts. Some critics also argue that the IPCC’s consensus-based approach can lead to a watered-down version of the science, as individual scientists may be hesitant to express their views if they differ from the mainstream.

In recent years, the IPCC has also faced criticism for its handling of issues related to climate justice and equity. Some critics argue that the organization has not done enough to address the disproportionate impacts of climate change on vulnerable communities, particularly in developing countries. Others argue that the IPCC’s focus on mitigation may overshadow the need for adaptation measures in developing countries.

It is important to learn about the particulars that the three reports deal with. The first two groups (WG-I and WG-II) focus on “Physical Science Basis and Vulnerabilities of Climate Change”. The WG-III is an assessment of the progress achieved in pursuance of climate change mitigation. Additionally, a ‘sector-specific assessment’ of the present status of green technologies is provided and key action areas are identified that are vital to ensure “transformative climate action”.

The common headlines on major news-delivering platforms about the ever-increasing and worsening global warming have been read by everyone. Judging by the ongoing trends, limiting warming to 1.5 degree Celsius required immediate action to ensure fall in global emissions by 43% by 2030, and finally reach net-zero by 2050. However, completion of this seems unlikely, looking at the trends in increasing emissions.

China and India, the two countries that have shown the fastest growth in emissions, have officially stated that the earliest years by which they could really achieve the “net-zero” status is 2060 and 2070, respectively.

The road is definitely jagged and stony, but it’s not completely ruined. The WG-III assures abundant and relatively affordable solutions that remain available. It remarks that acceptance and adoption of clean technologies have indeed shown a rise, that too much speedily than was expected or predicted since the year 2010. Thanks to solar uptake, we have been fortunate enough to see escalating tenfold and electric vehicles (EV’s) to more than hundredfold. The good news doesn’t end here: the cost of these technologies has declined remarkably, showing a total of 85% decrease in solar, wind and battery technologies’ costs.

What does this mean? Basically, cost reductions in these technologies gradually result in drop of selling price of these, indirectly making them pocket-friendly than other potential solutions. What about the risks implied? The probable issue that arises is that over-dependence on these technologies may signal red-herring in near future, eventually diverting investments from “more feasible mitigation technologies” and at the same time allowing increased investments in fossil-fuel based processes with the ambition that future emissions can be captured.

Now, taking a look the scenario of one of fastest-developing Asian country; India:

India, as one of the largest and fastest-growing economies in the world, is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The country has already experienced more frequent and severe heatwaves, droughts, floods, and cyclones in recent years, which have had significant economic and social impacts. India has also taken some important steps to address climate change, including setting a target of achieving 40% of its electricity generation from renewable sources by 2030.

However, there are also some challenges facing India’s response to climate change. One of the biggest challenges is the country’s heavy reliance on coal for energy production, which accounts for around 70% of its electricity generation. India’s coal-based power plants are a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, and reducing their emissions will require significant investment in renewable energy sources and energy efficiency measures.

Another challenge is the need to balance economic growth with environmental sustainability. India’s government has prioritized economic growth to lift millions of people out of poverty, but this has also led to rapid urbanization, industrialization, and increased energy consumption. India’s challenge is to find ways to achieve sustainable development while reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to the impacts of climate change.

India faces significant challenges in dealing with climate change, but it has also taken important steps to address the issue. The country needs to continue to invest in renewable energy sources and energy efficiency measures, while also balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability.

Emerging countries undoubtedly face the challenge of balancing climate action with their already tedious developmental goals. This, of course, is fundamentally different from the approaches followed by the developed nations like USA, UK, Canada, France, etc.

One of the most crucial factors that aid in achieving economic development in India is improved Domestic Manufacturing. In pursuance of the same, the 2011 National Manufacturing Policy aimed to increase the share of manufacturing sector to GDP of the country to 25%, which is somehow double the present level. It’s a relief to know that production linked incentives (PLI) schemes have been implemented across a total of 14 sectors. Even more so, these schemes have been implemented and applied to green technologies.

There hasn’t been a better launch-programme-cum-initiative in India than “Make in India”. It came into effect on 25th September, 2014. It’s been more than 8 years since Modi-led BJP Government launched this initiative, designed to “make and encourage companies to develop, manufacture and assemble products made in India.”

These schemes surely have encouraged domestic investment in production capacity. However, the lack of technological tools and access to necessary raw materials required to manufacture green technologies continue to pose a challenge. We see an entire section in the WG-III stating how fostering innovation and effective technology to developing countries is the need of the hour.

Addressing the Industrial policies of India: it is well-known that the crucial requirement of a good policy on industrialisation for India would have a clear focus on innovation and rapid transfer of technology.

According to a 2021 study, in terms of “Public Investment in Non-Fossil Research and Development (R&D), India has surpassed Japan to become the third-biggest investor.”

Another significant step taken by India is the persistent promotion of entrepreneurial activities. Our Country has seen enough new start-ups entering the “green-technology space”, in particular for providing solar solutions and electric vehicles.

Unfortunately, there are greater concerns and events that show lack of proper implementation of the same. India’s regulatory ecosystem is far from favourable for new and small businesses. Instances prove that a typical micro, small and medium enterprise (MSME) in India faces 500-900 compliances that cost between INR 1.2 million and INR 1.8 million annually. Not just this, the eligibility criteria in the PLI schemes that are related to revenue and investments make it impossible for certain MSMEs to access incentives.

Evidently, for the conditions to improve and development to prevail, the authorities and policymakers will have to step up their game and take decisive steps in furtherance of lightening the burden of start-ups while simultaneously expanding the existing PLI schemes or creating incentive schemes for MSMEs.

It is implied that there is a dire need to enhance and maintain a smooth relationship between research institutions and industries, one that specifically focuses on green technologies and future technologies (green hydrogen, second-generation biofuels and non-lithium battery chemistries).

Further, the WG-III report found special mention of actions and pointers that are particularly relevant and important for India to take note of. It includes the “need to correct marker biases that continue to favour fossil fuel investments.”

A major problem was found in a study which revealed to us that between 2017 and 2020, subsidies for renewable energy in India had fallen by 45%, even as fossil fuel subsidies increased.

What can be done about this? How does one address this stumbling block? Here are some suggestions:

  1. There is a dire need to start with a long-term solution.

It is suggested to have a “representative carbon tax” across all sectors. However, one must not forget that the present taxation system and “potential political implications” might pose a challenge to implementation of the same.

  1. Another feasible solution would be to constitute a committee that is devoted to developing ‘a roadmap for rationalising subsidies across sectors’, ultimately laying the groundwork for a carbon taxation system, unique to India.
  2. Adoption of a comprehensive ‘green taxonomy’ may also prove to be beneficial as it would provide direct finances to the right sectors.

Conclusion

To conclude, the author has discussed climate change and the contribution of the IPCC to the same. The article provides extensive information on the reports released by the IPCC and deliberation on the same. Further discussed is climate change with respect to India and the country’s policies and objectives for the same. India’s climate targets and its vision to pursue them is also brought in the picture. Certain problems and challenges that India faces with respect to the implementation of certain policies and actions have been highlighted. The author fruitfully concludes the write-up by giving three suggestions for the same reasons.